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  "published_at": "2026-08-28T19:52:39+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Manzur NH Senate bid holds at 7% as Pappas dominates",
  "telemetry": "7% · $14K 24h",
  "headline": "Manzur NH Dem Senate: 7% on $14K volume",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-HY8R70V952",
  "target_event_slug": "new-hampshire-democratic-senate-primary-winner",
  "event_question": "Will the Democratic Party winner of the New Hampshire Senate primary be determined by the 2026 primary election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x1cf96ff28b0fa76e23f12a0cf299fc3bced8b26e0addfc1ef11fb58347c0216e",
    "question_raw": "Will Karishma Manzur be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?",
    "current_price": 0.074,
    "volume_24h_usd": 13841.773855,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 39445.141711,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-09-08T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "7% leaves a slim tail for Manzur to overtake Pappas as the New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee.",
    "35% of all-time volume today, relative to contract size, the most concentrated daily share in the NH cluster.",
    "Likely driven by traders hedging or closing positions as the Pappas narrative tightens across venues.",
    "Resolves on New Hampshire Democratic primary certification."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 13841.773855
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the Democratic Party winner of the New Hampshire S",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/new-hampshire-democratic-senate-primary-winner",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-28T19:52:39+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
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  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
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