{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260923VS05",
  "record_slug": "will-kostadin-kostadinov-win-the-next-b-vol-12989",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-23T13:18:01+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Kostadinov Bulgarian presidential odds sit at 1%",
  "telemetry": "1% · $13K 24h",
  "headline": "Kostadinov Bulgaria president: 1% on $13K",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-23",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-C541X65QT7",
  "target_event_slug": "bulgaria-presidential-election",
  "event_question": "Will Bulgaria hold a presidential election by 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xa9e24f23e61265a798a2e484c0ead96255e6cd94034dfc0ab58343aa907cc390",
    "question_raw": "Will Kostadin Kostadinov win the next  Bulgarian presidential election?",
    "current_price": 0.006,
    "volume_24h_usd": 12989.656719000002,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 37368.012795,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-30T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices Kostadinov at 1%, effectively ruling out his presidential win in the current contract window.",
    "24h volume of $13K is 35% of all-time handle, a disproportionate single-day surge for a near-zero outcome.",
    "The far-right Bulgarian politician's contract drawing fresh volume at 1% may reflect geopolitical monitoring tied to Bulgaria's NATO/EU positioning.",
    "Resolves on the next Bulgarian presidential election result."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 12989.656719000002
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will Bulgaria hold a presidential election by 2026?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/bulgaria-presidential-election",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-23T13:18:01+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-kostadin-kostadinov-win-the-next-b-vol-12989/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-kostadin-kostadinov-win-the-next-b-vol-12989.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}