{
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  "record_slug": "will-labour-party-win-the-most-seats-in-vol-23579",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-06T07:48:47+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Labour NZ most-seats bid holds well below 50%",
  "telemetry": "34% · $24K 24h",
  "headline": "Labour NZ most seats: 34% on $24K volume",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "past_due",
    "as_of": "2026-11-08",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-DB92W53ZH3",
  "target_event_slug": "new-zealand-legislative-election-winner",
  "event_question": "Will the New Zealand Labour Party win the most seats in the next legislative election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x741d99d33224258ad4536be7adbfdea7cacdaec616ce88e13755bfafde9c6d19",
    "question_raw": "Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?",
    "current_price": 0.34,
    "volume_24h_usd": 23579.641455999998,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 70587.689513,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-07T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices Labour winning the most seats at 34%, leaving the field favoring other parties at 66%.",
    "24h volume of $24K is 33% of all-time volume, a meaningful but not dominant surge, reflecting building interest.",
    "Attention likely tied to tightening polling or an upcoming electoral event in New Zealand drawing fresh capital.",
    "Contract resolves on official New Zealand House of Representatives seat count after the relevant election."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 23579.641455999998
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the New Zealand Labour Party win the most seats in",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/new-zealand-legislative-election-winner",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-06T07:48:47+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
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    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-labour-party-win-the-most-seats-in-vol-23579.json"
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  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
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