{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261020VS05",
  "record_slug": "will-likud-win-20-24-seats-in-the-2026-i-vol-17896",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-20T13:16:06+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Fresh volume returns to Likud landing in the 20-24 seat range",
  "telemetry": "37% · $18K 24h",
  "headline": "Likud 20-24 seats 2026 election: 37% on $18K surge",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-49Z7YZY008",
  "target_event_slug": "israel-election-likud-of-seats",
  "event_question": "Will Likud win at least 30 seats in the next Israeli election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x3135bdbe2e03604ff34296d209bccf73d7e90b47f634bf47becffaad852c064d",
    "question_raw": "Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?",
    "current_price": 0.37,
    "volume_24h_usd": 17896.356476999998,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 58338.221477,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-10-27T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "At 37%, the 20-24 seat bracket is the single most credible Likud outcome range the market is currently pricing.",
    "24h volume of $18K equals 31% of all-time handle, and should be read alongside the concurrent 0% price on the 35+ bracket.",
    "Capital rotating out of higher seat-count brackets is likely landing here as polling narrows the expected Likud result.",
    "Resolves at the 2026 Israeli election; 37% makes this a contested outcome, not a consensus call."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 17896.356476999998
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will Likud win at least 30 seats in the next Israeli el",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/israel-election-likud-of-seats",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-20T13:16:06+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-likud-win-20-24-seats-in-the-2026-i-vol-17896/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-likud-win-20-24-seats-in-the-2026-i-vol-17896.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}