{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261020VS04",
  "record_slug": "will-likud-win-20-24-seats-in-the-2026-i-vol-21547",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-20T07:48:28+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Likud at 20-24 seats draws fresh volume with 38% odds",
  "telemetry": "38% · $22K 24h",
  "headline": "Likud 20-24 seats 2026 election: 38% on $22K volume",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-49Z7YZY008",
  "target_event_slug": "israel-election-likud-of-seats",
  "event_question": "Will Likud win at least 30 seats in the next Israeli election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x3135bdbe2e03604ff34296d209bccf73d7e90b47f634bf47becffaad852c064d",
    "question_raw": "Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?",
    "current_price": 0.38,
    "volume_24h_usd": 21547.56216,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 57926.285089,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-10-27T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices 38% on Likud winning 20-24 seats, the single most-likely individual seat band across the three contracts.",
    "$22K in 24h is 37% of all-time volume, part of a coordinated cross-contract move in Israeli election markets today.",
    "38% in this band against 22% in the 25-29 band implies the market favors a weaker Likud performance over a moderate one.",
    "Resolution tied to official 2026 Israeli election results; distribution across bands still leaves the seat count highly uncertain."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 21547.56216
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will Likud win at least 30 seats in the next Israeli el",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/israel-election-likud-of-seats",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-20T07:48:28+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-likud-win-20-24-seats-in-the-2026-i-vol-21547/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-likud-win-20-24-seats-in-the-2026-i-vol-21547.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}