{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261019VS02",
  "record_slug": "will-likud-win-35-or-more-seats-in-the-2-vol-17862",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-19T15:15:12+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Heavy trading tests Likud's 35-seat threshold at long-shot odds",
  "telemetry": "1% · $18K 24h",
  "headline": "Likud 35+ seats 2026: 1% on $18K Polymarket spike",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-49Z7YZY008",
  "target_event_slug": "israel-election-likud-of-seats",
  "event_question": "Will Likud win at least 30 seats in the next Israeli election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x78b3aec55f914a149fc110ffd4dcfb008ff94e2df4a451b396f7c14a572d6aa7",
    "question_raw": "Will Likud win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?",
    "current_price": 0.008,
    "volume_24h_usd": 17862.894867,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 48932.099807000006,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-10-27T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "At 1%, the market prices Likud winning 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli election as a near-impossibility.",
    "Today's $18K is 37% of all-time volume, more than a third of all trading concentrated in one session.",
    "Fresh attention at this price may follow Israeli polling data or a party realignment story entering the news cycle.",
    "Contract resolves on official 2026 Knesset seat allocation for Likud."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 17862.894867
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will Likud win at least 30 seats in the next Israeli el",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/israel-election-likud-of-seats",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-19T15:15:12+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-likud-win-35-or-more-seats-in-the-2-vol-17862/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-likud-win-35-or-more-seats-in-the-2-vol-17862.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}