{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261004VS05",
  "record_slug": "will-luiz-in-cio-lula-da-silva-win-the-f-vol-54157",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-04T07:48:35+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Lula first-round odds sit at 53% in separate contract",
  "telemetry": "53% · $54K 24h",
  "headline": "Lula first-round alt contract: 53% on $54K",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-2NF81BZ4K5",
  "target_event_slug": "brazil-presidential-election-first-round-margin-of-victory",
  "event_question": "Will the margin of victory in Brazil's presidential election first round be less than 5 percentage points?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x5d5b8feb963ddcc0f4688f7ac0c0d375f99945b7a07155d60cd1a306c6b3054b",
    "question_raw": "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?",
    "current_price": 0.53,
    "volume_24h_usd": 54157.588472,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 199285.66697000002,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "A parallel Polymarket contract prices Lula's first-round win at 53%, sharply diverging from the 9% contract (Spike 1).",
    "27% of all-time volume transacted in 24h, indicating active two-sided trading on this alternative framing.",
    "The pricing gap between contracts suggests different resolution criteria or a market inefficiency drawing arbitrage flow.",
    "Resolves on Brazil's 2026 first-round election result."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 54157.588472
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the margin of victory in Brazil's presidential ele",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-margin-of-victory",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-04T07:48:35+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-luiz-in-cio-lula-da-silva-win-the-f-vol-54157/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-luiz-in-cio-lula-da-silva-win-the-f-vol-54157.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
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