{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260704VS01",
  "record_slug": "will-mahmoud-abbas-be-the-next-leader-ou-vol-609232",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-04T10:05:37+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Abbas written off as next leader out, capital stacks at zero",
  "telemetry": "0% · $609K 24h",
  "headline": "Abbas next out: 0% on $609K volume spike",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-2FLCV9PNS4",
  "target_event_slug": "next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-no-orban",
  "event_question": "Will a current leader lose power before 2027, excluding Viktor Orbán?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xaffa29d449f3b5a46d933bc412f7ae823e9f5216257c8c6e5bd695a9e2c0392b",
    "question_raw": "Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.004,
    "volume_24h_usd": 609232.271332,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 805942.2860289997,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Price at 0%, market firmly rejects Abbas as the next leader to exit before 2027.",
    "24h volume $609K represents 76% of all-time flow, the heaviest single-session concentration in this contract.",
    "Elevated attention may reflect spillover from Netanyahu contract activity and linked Middle East leadership positioning.",
    "Resolution requires Abbas to be the first named leader to depart office before Jan 1 2027."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 609232.271332
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will a current leader lose power before 2027, excluding",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-no-orban",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-04T10:05:37+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-mahmoud-abbas-be-the-next-leader-ou-vol-609232/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-mahmoud-abbas-be-the-next-leader-ou-vol-609232.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}