{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261017VS05",
  "record_slug": "will-mar-a-jes-s-montero-be-the-next-pri-vol-15000",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-17T11:58:01+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Montero as Spain PM priced at zero; volume tests the floor",
  "telemetry": "0% · $15K 24h",
  "headline": "Montero Spain PM: 0% on $15K Polymarket flow",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-D9KHM803Y2",
  "target_event_slug": "next-prime-minister-of-spain-20260625005215443",
  "event_question": "Who will be the next Prime Minister of Spain?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x48e2b67721830dd1a9e187827b6ec4dc8d3f41732f12ce9f44717b187001bb3a",
    "question_raw": "Will María Jesús Montero be the next Prime Minister of Spain?",
    "current_price": 0.001,
    "volume_24h_usd": 15000,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 34981.28699999999,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2028-03-31T23:59:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices María Jesús Montero's path to Prime Minister at 0%, a hard rejection of the scenario.",
    "24h volume of $15K is 43% of all-time, substantial flow arriving to confirm or probe the zero-price floor.",
    "Flow into a zero-priced contract typically reflects new entrants confirming consensus or seeking edge on a tail scenario.",
    "Resolves contingent on Spanish government formation or leadership transition events."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 15000
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Who will be the next Prime Minister of Spain?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/next-prime-minister-of-spain-20260625005215443",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-17T11:58:01+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-mar-a-jes-s-montero-be-the-next-pri-vol-15000/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-mar-a-jes-s-montero-be-the-next-pri-vol-15000.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}