{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260709VS03",
  "record_slug": "will-missouri-have-a-maximum-drought-cat-vol-63545",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-09T10:57:00+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Missouri D4 drought by early July draws deep-conviction hedging",
  "telemetry": "71% · $64K 24h",
  "headline": "Missouri D4 drought June, July: 71% on $63K surge",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-3THMS6LQ79",
  "target_event_slug": "kxdroughtlevel-26julld4",
  "event_question": "Which states will experience exceptional drought by July 30?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXDROUGHTLEVEL-26JULLD4-MO",
    "question_raw": "Will Missouri have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.71,
    "volume_24h_usd": 63545.36,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 70900.69,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2026-08-07T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "71% price, market assigns strong probability Missouri hits extreme D4 drought in the window.",
    "$63K in 24h is 90% of all-time; near the entire contract's history traded today.",
    "USDA drought monitor updates and crop stress reports likely driving fresh ag-desk and weather-risk attention.",
    "Resolution tied to the June 4, July window; outcome is imminent, compressing time value into directional flow."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 63545.36
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Which states will experience exceptional drought by Jul",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxdroughtlevel-26julld4",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-09T10:57:00+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-missouri-have-a-maximum-drought-cat-vol-63545/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-missouri-have-a-maximum-drought-cat-vol-63545.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}