{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260712VS01",
  "record_slug": "will-mohammad-khatami-be-head-of-state-i-vol-880976",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-12T09:48:30+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Capital stacks against Khatami's return to Iranian leadership",
  "telemetry": "0% · $881K 24h",
  "headline": "Khatami Iran head of state: 0% on $881K surge",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RHBS1Y2385",
  "target_event_slug": "iran-leader-end-of-2026",
  "event_question": "Will Iran's leader change by the end of 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x4266ab921148974f104cbadd099e13bca989441bf58acfd2a08fc6cc7440e1a1",
    "question_raw": "Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.002,
    "volume_24h_usd": 880976.6289999989,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 2026859.5802690003,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices Khatami at 0% end-of-2026, reformist path to power deemed effectively impossible.",
    "$881K in 24h is 43% of $2M all-time pool, the single largest daily session on this contract.",
    "Volume spike alongside the Motahari zero suggests coordinated Iran succession basket settlement.",
    "Resolves December 31, 2026; flows indicate institutional finality rather than speculative entry."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 880976.6289999989
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will Iran's leader change by the end of 2026?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/iran-leader-end-of-2026",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-12T09:48:30+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-mohammad-khatami-be-head-of-state-i-vol-880976/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-mohammad-khatami-be-head-of-state-i-vol-880976.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}