{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260713VS01",
  "record_slug": "will-mohammed-bin-salman-cease-to-be-the-vol-51050",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-13T10:56:44+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Heavy flows defend MBS retaining de facto Saudi leadership by December",
  "telemetry": "5% · $51K 24h",
  "headline": "MBS Saudi leadership: 5% on $51K, 77% of all-time vol",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-7TQCR95JL6",
  "target_event_slug": "mohammed-bin-salman-out-as-leader-of-saudi-arabia-by",
  "event_question": "Will Mohammed bin Salman be out as leader of Saudi Arabia in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xb75da764f8b8363d534eba91c4fb19ceb666272f6fb1aa4ef66bdf7ae3e34b30",
    "question_raw": "Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.046,
    "volume_24h_usd": 51050.380000000005,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 66581.73322299999,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "5% price implies market assigns slim but non-negligible odds MBS exits power by December.",
    "24h volume $51K is 77% of all-time handle, effectively a full market repricing in one session.",
    "Spike suggests fresh geopolitical attention, possibly linked to regional instability or succession rumors.",
    "Contract resolves December 2026; thin all-time liquidity means even modest flows move the needle."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 51050.380000000005
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will Mohammed bin Salman be out as leader of Saudi Arab",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/mohammed-bin-salman-out-as-leader-of-saudi-arabia-by",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-13T10:56:44+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-mohammed-bin-salman-cease-to-be-the-vol-51050/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-mohammed-bin-salman-cease-to-be-the-vol-51050.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}