{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG20260921VS01",
  "record_slug": "will-new-people-nl-gain-the-most-seats-vol-1484721",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-21T07:48:00+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "New People winning the Duma stays a 0% long shot",
  "telemetry": "0% · $1.5M 24h",
  "headline": "New People most seats: 0% on $1.5M volume",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-XS1TS19GP7",
  "target_event_slug": "which-party-will-gain-most-seats-in-russian-parliamentary-election",
  "event_question": "Which party will gain the most seats in the Russian Parliamentary Election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xc9615bb82d6535d630ff98e8094060bc767d8b9446516e98f84d2001a35e50e7",
    "question_raw": "Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?",
    "current_price": 0.002,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1484721.4055420002,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 5896828.370803001,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices New People (NL) at 0% to lead the Duma, the market sees no path.",
    "25% of all-time volume traded in 24h, mirroring the United Russia flush on the same election.",
    "Coordinated volume across the Russian parliamentary suite suggests settlement or bloc positioning.",
    "Resolves on official seat count from the next Russian parliamentary election."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 1484721.4055420002
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Which party will gain the most seats in the Russian Par",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/which-party-will-gain-most-seats-in-russian-parliamentary-election",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-21T07:48:00+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-new-people-nl-gain-the-most-seats-vol-1484721/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-new-people-nl-gain-the-most-seats-vol-1484721.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
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