{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260903VS02",
  "record_slug": "will-nicol-s-maduro-be-sentenced-to-at-l-vol-36156",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-03T12:31:50+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Maduro 60-year sentence odds hold at 34% through surge",
  "telemetry": "34% · $36K 24h",
  "headline": "Maduro 60-yr sentence: 34% on $36K volume",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-DYN1XGWYT5",
  "target_event_slug": "maduro-prison-time-527",
  "event_question": "Will Nicolás Maduro serve prison time?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xce500e0cdc77863e3ae46ea2f8fc7afea2e94e703761e4004065e23fe8629881",
    "question_raw": "Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?",
    "current_price": 0.34,
    "volume_24h_usd": 36156,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 87195.87952400003,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices a 60-year sentence at 34%, meaningful probability but the market leans against it.",
    "24h volume of $36K represents 41% of all-time flow, marking sharp renewed attention to the outcome.",
    "Geopolitical developments or court proceedings in Venezuela are likely pulling fresh capital into the contract.",
    "Resolves on formal sentencing of Nicolás Maduro to at least 60 years in prison."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 36156
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will Nicolás Maduro serve prison time?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/maduro-prison-time-527",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-03T12:31:50+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-nicol-s-maduro-be-sentenced-to-at-l-vol-36156/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-nicol-s-maduro-be-sentenced-to-at-l-vol-36156.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}