{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261107VS05",
  "record_slug": "will-pete-hegseth-leave-the-trump-admini-vol-74299",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-07T14:39:51+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Hegseth exit odds hold at 32% through a volume push",
  "telemetry": "32% · $74K 24h",
  "headline": "Hegseth leaves admin: 32% on $74K surge",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-08",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-KZSP2MGN63",
  "target_event_slug": "who-will-leave-trump-administration-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will anyone leave the Trump Administration before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xeae757a623cf6a8e4d63ab5ebca6739519f87f3506accbfdd75ae514a72bf461",
    "question_raw": "Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.32,
    "volume_24h_usd": 74299.75838,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 274017.046664,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices Hegseth leaving before 2027 at 32%, elevated tail risk, nearly one-in-three implied probability.",
    "$74K in 24h is 27% of all-time volume, the largest single-session share the contract has seen.",
    "32% is a meaningfully high exit probability for a sitting cabinet secretary, suggesting ongoing controversy is being priced.",
    "Resolves end-2026; weeks remain for a potential personnel change."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 74299.75838
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will anyone leave the Trump Administration before 2027?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/who-will-leave-trump-administration-before-2027",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-07T14:39:51+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-pete-hegseth-leave-the-trump-admini-vol-74299/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-pete-hegseth-leave-the-trump-admini-vol-74299.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}