{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260610BD03",
  "record_slug": "will-real-gdp-increase-by-more-than-2-vs-bench",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-10T11:37:52+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Markets back US real GDP surging above 2% in Q2 2026",
  "telemetry": "81% · Real GDP growth, annualized (FRED) 1.6%",
  "headline": "Real GDP above 2% in Q2 2026: 81%; now 1.6%",
  "category_tag": "VS_BENCHMARK_DRIFT",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "benchmark_drift",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-TTR8WH64R6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxgdp-26jul30",
  "event_question": "Real GDP quarterly growth, Q2 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXGDP-26JUL30-T2.0",
    "question_raw": "Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.0% in Q2 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.81,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 8904.03,
    "resolves_at": "2026-07-30T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices real GDP growth exceeding 2.0% annualized in Q2 2026 at 81%.",
    "FRED real GDP growth is currently 1.6% annualized, 40 basis points below the threshold.",
    "Market implies a high-conviction acceleration; the latest official print shows a meaningful shortfall.",
    "Resolves against the BEA advance Q2 2026 GDP estimate."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "benchmark_divergence",
      "provenance": "PM price direct from kalshi API; benchmark Real GDP growth, annualized (FRED) = 1.6%",
      "field_provenance": {
        "pm_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "benchmark_value": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "Real GDP growth, annualized (FRED)",
          "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-10T11:37:52+00:00"
        }
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Real GDP growth, annualized (FRED): 1.6%",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-10T11:37:52+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "benchmark_api",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-real-gdp-increase-by-more-than-2-vs-bench/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-real-gdp-increase-by-more-than-2-vs-bench.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}