{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260909VS03",
  "record_slug": "will-republican-win-the-house-race-for-n-vol-17116",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-09T12:40:54+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Republican NJ-7 odds stay under 50% in volume test",
  "telemetry": "30% · $17K 24h",
  "headline": "NJ-7 Republican: 30% on $17K activity burst",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-09",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-P0428D3JR9",
  "target_event_slug": "housenj7-26",
  "event_question": "Who will win the New Jersey 7th Congressional District House election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "HOUSENJ7-26-R",
    "question_raw": "Will Republican win the House race for NJ-7?",
    "current_price": 0.3,
    "volume_24h_usd": 17116.69,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 22382.06,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-04T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Republican side of NJ-7 prices at 30% on Kalshi, consistent with the Democratic contract at 71%.",
    "76% of all-time Republican-leg volume cleared in 24h, mirroring the surge in the opposing contract.",
    "Paired spike on both legs confirms concentrated district attention, not simple arbitrage noise.",
    "Resolves as the inverse of the Democratic NJ-7 contract on Election Night 2026."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 17116.69
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Who will win the New Jersey 7th Congressional District ",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/housenj7-26",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-09T12:40:54+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-republican-win-the-house-race-for-n-vol-17116/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-republican-win-the-house-race-for-n-vol-17116.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}