{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261021VS03",
  "record_slug": "will-republican-win-the-house-race-for-o-vol-23955",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-21T13:25:08+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Republicans favored to hold OH-10 House seat",
  "telemetry": "76% · $24K 24h",
  "headline": "OH-10 House GOP win: 76% on $24K volume",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-TY2DWD9XJ0",
  "target_event_slug": "kxhouserace-oh10-26",
  "event_question": "OH-10 House winner?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXHOUSERACE-OH10-26-R",
    "question_raw": "Will Republican win the House race for OH-10?",
    "current_price": 0.76,
    "volume_24h_usd": 23955.5,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 71690.65,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-04T17:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices the Republican candidate at 76% in Ohio's 10th, a solid but not insurmountable advantage.",
    "$24K in 24h volume represents 33% of all-time handle, a notable single-session concentration.",
    "Fresh volume into a 76% favorite suggests a recent poll, fundraising report, or candidate event is reinforcing the price.",
    "Resolves on certified 2026 midterm results for Ohio's 10th congressional district."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 23955.5
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: OH-10 House winner?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxhouserace-oh10-26",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-21T13:25:08+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-republican-win-the-house-race-for-o-vol-23955/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-republican-win-the-house-race-for-o-vol-23955.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}