{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG20260918VS05",
  "record_slug": "will-republicans-win-the-senate-race-in-vol-20928",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-18T12:39:43+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Republican Idaho Senate hold priced near certainty",
  "telemetry": "94% · $21K 24h",
  "headline": "GOP Idaho Senate: 94% on $21K inflow",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-18",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-TRRJX6C1D5",
  "target_event_slug": "senateid-26",
  "event_question": "Idaho Senate winner?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "SENATEID-26-R",
    "question_raw": "Will Republicans win the Senate race in Idaho?",
    "current_price": 0.935,
    "volume_24h_usd": 20928.66,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 53388.9,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-04T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "94% price leaves almost no market probability of a Democratic pickup in Idaho's Senate race.",
    "39% of all-time volume in 24 hours is notable for a race with almost no perceived competitiveness.",
    "Volume at this price level likely reflects hedging or arbitrage activity rather than directional conviction.",
    "Resolves on the certified outcome of the Idaho Senate general election."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 20928.66
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Idaho Senate winner?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/senateid-26",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-18T12:39:43+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-republicans-win-the-senate-race-in-vol-20928/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-republicans-win-the-senate-race-in-vol-20928.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}