{
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  "record_slug": "will-republicans-win-the-senate-race-in-vol-220107",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-05T07:49:08+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Mississippi GOP Senate odds sit at 4% through fresh volume",
  "telemetry": "4% · $220K 24h",
  "headline": "MS Senate GOP win: 4% as $220K pours in today",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-08",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6R8L57X0Y4",
  "target_event_slug": "senatems-26",
  "event_question": "Will the Mississippi Senate race be decided by January 4, 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "SENATEMS-26-R",
    "question_raw": "Will Republicans win the Senate race in Mississippi?",
    "current_price": 0.037,
    "volume_24h_usd": 220107.02,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 528005.14,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-04T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices a Republican Mississippi Senate win at 4%, consistent with the 96% Democratic pricing on the companion contract.",
    "42% of all-time volume, $220K, cleared in one session, a notable Election Day commitment to the 'no' side.",
    "Volume at this price level suggests traders are either closing long Democratic positions or making final directional bets.",
    "Resolves on certified Mississippi Senate result; a 4% tail is not zero in a close-count environment."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
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          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 220107.02
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the Mississippi Senate race be decided by January ",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/senatems-26",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-05T07:49:08+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
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    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-republicans-win-the-senate-race-in-vol-220107.json"
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  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
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