{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG20260712VS04",
  "record_slug": "will-republicans-win-the-senate-race-in-vol-49632",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-12T09:48:30+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Republicans defend South Carolina Senate seat at heavy odds",
  "telemetry": "81% · $50K 24h",
  "headline": "GOP SC Senate win: 81% on $50K fresh inflow",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-YB0M8XXMW8",
  "target_event_slug": "senatesc-26",
  "event_question": "Who will win the South Carolina Senate election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "SENATESC-26-R",
    "question_raw": "Will Republicans win the Senate race in South Carolina?",
    "current_price": 0.81,
    "volume_24h_usd": 49632.05,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 104636.37,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-04T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices Republican South Carolina Senate victory at 81%, solid but not locked favorite.",
    "$50K in 24h is 47% of a $105K all-time pool, marking the contract's most active trading session.",
    "Fresh attention may reflect candidate filing clarity, early polling, or national Democratic resource allocation news.",
    "Resolves on 2026 South Carolina Senate election night; price leaves meaningful uncertainty for the opposition."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 49632.05
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Who will win the South Carolina Senate election?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/senatesc-26",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-12T09:48:30+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
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    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-republicans-win-the-senate-race-in-vol-49632/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-republicans-win-the-senate-race-in-vol-49632.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
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  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
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