{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261031VS01",
  "record_slug": "will-republicans-win-the-senate-race-in-vol-612218",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-31T07:49:19+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Republicans stay favored in Nebraska Senate as volume builds",
  "telemetry": "71% · $612K 24h",
  "headline": "Nebraska Senate GOP win: 71% on $612K inflow",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-37PJ66HMC4",
  "target_event_slug": "senatene-26",
  "event_question": "Nebraska Senate winner?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "SENATENE-26-R",
    "question_raw": "Will Republicans win the Senate race in Nebraska?",
    "current_price": 0.71,
    "volume_24h_usd": 612218.75,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 2170063.23,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-04T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices Republicans at 71%, solid favorite, but gap from certainty keeps two-way flow active.",
    "$612K in 24h represents 28% of all-time volume, a substantial pre-election positioning surge.",
    "Nebraska drew outside attention after redistricting and candidate drama; fresh volume confirms elevated national interest.",
    "Resolves on Nebraska 2026 Senate election outcome."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 612218.75
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Nebraska Senate winner?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/senatene-26",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-31T07:49:19+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-republicans-win-the-senate-race-in-vol-612218/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-republicans-win-the-senate-race-in-vol-612218.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}