{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG20260613VS07",
  "record_slug": "will-robert-kenyon-win-the-2026-makerfie-vol-332191",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-13T10:26:10+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Kenyon Makerfield flows stack against a Labour defense",
  "telemetry": "27% · $332K 24h",
  "headline": "Kenyon wins Makerfield: 27% on $332K surge",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LY608MSMM2",
  "target_event_slug": "makerfield-by-election-winner",
  "event_question": "Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x3c169e95aea67be5fac1529b3ad8e891fe97ec54d1f272fab43b02cce948f6c2",
    "question_raw": "Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?",
    "current_price": 0.27,
    "volume_24h_usd": 332191.61503399996,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 701518.2993609991,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices Robert Kenyon winning the 2026 Makerfield by-election at 27%, meaningful underdog probability.",
    "24h volume of $332K is 47% of all-time handle, a sharp single-day concentration suggesting fresh catalysts.",
    "Makerfield is a traditional Labour stronghold; 27% for Kenyon implies significant swing expectation or late polling movement.",
    "Resolution on by-election day; attention surge at this price level often precedes polling or canvassing data releases."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 332191.61503399996
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-electi",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/makerfield-by-election-winner",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-13T10:26:10+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
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    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-robert-kenyon-win-the-2026-makerfie-vol-332191.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}