{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260713VS02",
  "record_slug": "will-robinhood-markets-inc-report-above-vol-16223",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-13T10:56:44+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Robinhood funded-customer beat sits near certainty ahead of Q2 print",
  "telemetry": "98% · $16K 24h",
  "headline": "Robinhood Q2 funded customers >27.7M: 98% on $16K",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-QHYZG7JK22",
  "target_event_slug": "kxhood-26julfunded",
  "event_question": "Robinhood funded customers, July 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXHOOD-26JULFUNDED-P27700000.0",
    "question_raw": "Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report above 27.7 million funded customers in Q2 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.98,
    "volume_24h_usd": 16223.99,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 33403.91,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2026-08-28T20:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "98% price reflects near-consensus that Robinhood clears 27.7M funded customers in Q2 2026.",
    "24h volume $16K is 49% of all-time, renewed positioning ahead of Q2 earnings disclosure.",
    "Surge likely reflects Q2 report imminent or already scheduled, drawing last-minute directional flow.",
    "Resolves on official Q2 customer count report; residual 2% discount reflects execution or reporting risk."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 16223.99
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Robinhood funded customers, July 2026",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxhood-26julfunded",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-13T10:56:44+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-robinhood-markets-inc-report-above-vol-16223/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-robinhood-markets-inc-report-above-vol-16223.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}