{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260811VS06",
  "record_slug": "will-russia-capture-lyman-by-september-3-vol-27901",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-11T08:50:18+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Odds on Russia taking Lyman by September 30 stay near zero at 6%",
  "telemetry": "6% · $28K 24h",
  "headline": "Russia captures Lyman by Sep 30: 6% on $28K",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-GM6XLL63G6",
  "target_event_slug": "will-russia-capture-lyman-in-2025",
  "event_question": "Will Russia capture Lyman by...?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x25e4d8c492f2b24d8f720c9bd7480e541613405d6d13598c51f36f214ec5112a",
    "question_raw": "Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.06,
    "volume_24h_usd": 27901.579999999998,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 71781.73658099998,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-09-30T23:55:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Market prices Russia capturing Lyman by September 30, 2026 at just 6%, deep discount.",
    "$28K in 24h, 39% of all-time volume, shows a sharp revival of interest in this front-line contract.",
    "Volume likely reflects new battlefield reporting or shifting front-line assessments near Lyman.",
    "Resolves YES only if Russian forces control Lyman before October 1, 2026."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 27901.579999999998
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will Russia capture Lyman by...?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-russia-capture-lyman-in-2025",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-11T08:50:18+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-russia-capture-lyman-by-september-3-vol-27901/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-russia-capture-lyman-by-september-3-vol-27901.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}