{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261020VS01",
  "record_slug": "will-russia-enter-khatnie-by-december-31-vol-54023",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-20T07:48:28+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Traders pile into Russia taking Khatnie by year-end at 27%",
  "telemetry": "27% · $54K 24h",
  "headline": "Russia enters Khatnie by Dec 31: 27% on $54K spike",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-KR1P3ML5Y6",
  "target_event_slug": "will-russia-enter-khatnie-by",
  "event_question": "Will Russia enter Khatnie by June 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x41026240b7e9da9e447ba71d113c8e09dd0fff1bafa3a4a8ec38febe12d43f7a",
    "question_raw": "Will Russia enter Khatnie by December 31, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.27,
    "volume_24h_usd": 54023.36740799999,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 69785.29871499997,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices 27% odds on Russian forces entering Khatnie by December 31, a meaningful but minority probability.",
    "$54K in 24h represents 77% of all-time volume, making this one of the most concentrated single-session surges in the batch.",
    "77% of lifetime volume in one day points to a very recent tactical development or battlefield report driving fresh positioning.",
    "Resolves December 31, 2026; at 27% the market sees it as a live but non-base-case scenario."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 54023.36740799999
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will Russia enter Khatnie by June 2026?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-russia-enter-khatnie-by",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-20T07:48:28+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-russia-enter-khatnie-by-december-31-vol-54023/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-russia-enter-khatnie-by-december-31-vol-54023.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}