{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260726VS06",
  "record_slug": "will-samuel-alito-announce-his-retiremen-vol-15204",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-26T09:56:30+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Buyers back Alito retirement odds at 35%",
  "telemetry": "35% · $15K 24h",
  "headline": "Alito retirement by Jun 2027: 35% on $15K",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-28",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-XDBQBGP715",
  "target_event_slug": "will-samuel-alito-announce-his-retirement-by",
  "event_question": "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by the end of 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x559b8224c2ae858342c0617ba278b46242e51071950f9a9d04bc3147dc374440",
    "question_raw": "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.35,
    "volume_24h_usd": 15204.865841,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 39397.78489300002,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2027-06-30T23:59:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices a Samuel Alito retirement announcement by Jun 30, 2027 at 35%, a meaningful minority probability.",
    "39% of all-time volume arrived in 24h, a notable single-session share for a slow-moving SCOTUS contract.",
    "Senate dynamics, Trump judicial agenda, or Alito public statements likely refreshed trader interest.",
    "Resolution deadline is Jun 30, 2027; odds imply roughly one-in-three chance of an announcement inside a year."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 15204.865841
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by the end of",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-samuel-alito-announce-his-retirement-by",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-26T09:56:30+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-samuel-alito-announce-his-retiremen-vol-15204/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-samuel-alito-announce-his-retiremen-vol-15204.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}