{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261107VS04",
  "record_slug": "will-scott-bessent-leave-the-trump-admin-vol-53176",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-07T14:39:51+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Bessent keeping Treasury post; odds of exit stay at 9%",
  "telemetry": "9% · $53K 24h",
  "headline": "Bessent leaves Treasury: 9% on $53K volume",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-08",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-KZSP2MGN63",
  "target_event_slug": "who-will-leave-trump-administration-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will anyone leave the Trump Administration before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xe51901c28b674d46cca978bb16790dbb42e291c31ce2acc8faa7bb16960c8eda",
    "question_raw": "Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.091,
    "volume_24h_usd": 53176.268415999984,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 76532.41716999999,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices Bessent departing the Trump administration before 2027 at just 9%, market rates him as likely to stay.",
    "$53K in 24h is 69% of all-time contract volume, a large share suggesting this question is newly active.",
    "Fresh attention may reflect spillover from the Miller departure spike (Spike 0), prompting traders to reprice other cabinet exit risks.",
    "Contract resolves end-2026."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 53176.268415999984
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will anyone leave the Trump Administration before 2027?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/who-will-leave-trump-administration-before-2027",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-07T14:39:51+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-scott-bessent-leave-the-trump-admin-vol-53176/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-scott-bessent-leave-the-trump-admin-vol-53176.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}