{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260823VS01",
  "record_slug": "will-solana-reach-120-by-december-31-2-vol-13360",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-23T08:24:40+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Odds hold near 50% as $120 Solana bet draws heavy trading",
  "telemetry": "52% · $13K 24h",
  "headline": "Solana $120 by Dec 31: 52% on $13K surge",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-BBD03M42C1",
  "target_event_slug": "what-price-will-solana-hit-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will Solana reach a specific price level in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x7bd108cb4e84d39db267ae09d19536805a874e540905f0b3b0fad8154170b4c2",
    "question_raw": "Will Solana reach $120 by December 31, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.52,
    "volume_24h_usd": 13360.109359999999,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 38459.978104999995,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket sits at 52%, essentially a coin-flip, meaning the market sees the $120 target as right at the edge of probable.",
    "24h volume of $13K is 35% of all-time handle, indicating concentrated fresh interest compressing into a near-binary outcome.",
    "At 52%, new capital is being deployed on both sides of the line, consistent with a macro or crypto-sector catalyst sharpening conviction.",
    "Resolves Dec 31, 2026; with SOL near the threshold implied by market pricing, small price moves carry outsized resolution risk."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 13360.109359999999
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will Solana reach a specific price level in 2026?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/what-price-will-solana-hit-before-2027",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-23T08:24:40+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-solana-reach-120-by-december-31-2-vol-13360/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-solana-reach-120-by-december-31-2-vol-13360.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}