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  "record_slug": "will-spd-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-vol-186070",
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  "published_at": "2026-09-18T12:39:43+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "SPD plurality odds hold at 50% through a volume surge",
  "telemetry": "50% · $186K 24h",
  "headline": "SPD MV plurality: 50% on $186K inflow",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
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    "as_of": "2026-09-18",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-N815VR9GY5",
  "target_event_slug": "mecklenburg-vorpommern-parliamentary-election-winner",
  "event_question": "Will the SPD win the most seats in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state parliament election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x7742a04b33fb5a5b15474a7c70f3c073922c1f471bddc66ceb01c1ffd1841829",
    "question_raw": "Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?",
    "current_price": 0.5,
    "volume_24h_usd": 186070.64316500002,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 579813.251804,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z"
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  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "50% price is the market's version of a coin-flip, SPD and AfD are priced as dead-level rivals.",
    "32% of all-time volume in 24 hours underscores how rapidly conviction is being tested pre-vote.",
    "Paired with Spike 0, the two contracts together imply no dominant favorite heading into election day.",
    "Resolves on certified seat totals from the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state parliament."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
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          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
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            "volume_cumulative_usd"
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        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 186070.64316500002
      }
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  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the SPD win the most seats in the Mecklenburg-Vorp",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/mecklenburg-vorpommern-parliamentary-election-winner",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-18T12:39:43+00:00"
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  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
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  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
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