{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260908VS02",
  "record_slug": "will-stefany-shaheen-be-the-democratic-n-vol-17531",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-08T12:34:41+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Shaheen NH-01 bid stays a long shot through a volume spike",
  "telemetry": "17% · $18K 24h",
  "headline": "Shaheen NH-01 Dem primary: 17% on $18K surge",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-08",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-BHSCBSRT91",
  "target_event_slug": "nh-01-democratic-primary-winner",
  "event_question": "Will a Democrat win the NH-01 primary election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xf64108affb6c655b7a50d662d2c508bef1897e40bb3106f7405552c177c92d78",
    "question_raw": "Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?",
    "current_price": 0.17,
    "volume_24h_usd": 17531.28338,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 66536.308929,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-09-08T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket marks Shaheen at 17%, the market assigns her a meaningful but minority chance against Sullivan.",
    "$17.5K in 24h is 26% of all-time volume, mirroring the Sullivan spike as the same primary draws both sides.",
    "Paired volume across Sullivan and Shaheen contracts points to active two-sided positioning on the same race.",
    "Both contracts resolve on the Democratic primary outcome for NH-01."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 17531.28338
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will a Democrat win the NH-01 primary election?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/nh-01-democratic-primary-winner",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-08T12:34:41+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-stefany-shaheen-be-the-democratic-n-vol-17531/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-stefany-shaheen-be-the-democratic-n-vol-17531.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}