{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG20260627VS06",
  "record_slug": "will-tesla-deliver-475000-or-more-vehicl-vol-22444",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-27T01:36:27+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Tesla Q2 delivery miss risk priced at 89% against 475K target",
  "telemetry": "11% · $22K 24h",
  "headline": "Tesla Q2 deliveries ≥475K: 11% on $22K",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-TKB6WQH0P3",
  "target_event_slug": "how-many-tesla-deliveries-in-q2-2026",
  "event_question": "Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q2 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x4926438a8bcd51e07989a94a7efafff86a0c66101a5f0f51dc0a252425c41b4b",
    "question_raw": "Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026",
    "current_price": 0.112,
    "volume_24h_usd": 22444.178305000012,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 38462.889547000006,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "11% probability implies the market expects Tesla to fall short of 475K Q2 deliveries.",
    "$22K in 24h is 58% of all-time contract volume, significant late-quarter positioning.",
    "Q2 ends June 30; delivery data release imminent, compressing time value sharply.",
    "Low price and high volume share suggest 'No' holders are locking in gains ahead of the print."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 22444.178305000012
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles i",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/how-many-tesla-deliveries-in-q2-2026",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-27T01:36:27+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-tesla-deliver-475000-or-more-vehicl-vol-22444/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-tesla-deliver-475000-or-more-vehicl-vol-22444.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}