{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260627VS05",
  "record_slug": "will-tesla-deliver-between-400000-and-42-vol-10309",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-27T10:03:08+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Tesla 400K, 425K delivery band targeted by late Q2 capital",
  "telemetry": "29% · $10K 24h",
  "headline": "Tesla Q2 400K, 425K deliveries: 29% on $10K",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-TKB6WQH0P3",
  "target_event_slug": "how-many-tesla-deliveries-in-q2-2026",
  "event_question": "Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q2 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xb98ca5f27a851fd490082e9d3f3058e9a8cf0266ec207854395693015acbd293",
    "question_raw": "Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026",
    "current_price": 0.289,
    "volume_24h_usd": 10309.068382,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 27592.236915000005,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket at 29%, modest plurality implies this band is the modal miss scenario among bearish delivery views.",
    "$10K in 24h equals 37% of all-time volume; activity concentrated at the wire with hours left in Q2.",
    "Combined with the ≥475K contract (Spike 2 at 26%), capital is distributing across miss scenarios rather than committing to one.",
    "Resolves on Q2 delivery report; band specificity makes this a precision trade on production output."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 10309.068382
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles i",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/how-many-tesla-deliveries-in-q2-2026",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-27T10:03:08+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-tesla-deliver-between-400000-and-42-vol-10309/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-tesla-deliver-between-400000-and-42-vol-10309.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}