{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260911VS05",
  "record_slug": "will-the-10-year-treasury-yield-hit-5-2-vol-15210",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-11T12:33:13+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "10-year yield hitting 5.2% before 2027 stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "28% · $15K 24h",
  "headline": "10Y yield 5.2% before 2027: 28% on $15K",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-11",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4F238D6VR7",
  "target_event_slug": "how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-before-2027",
  "event_question": "What is the maximum 10-year Treasury yield before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x29ab857c87a22182c1ebb51c80f4ad5110c11676f78fac95af1942bceccbfed1",
    "question_raw": "Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.279,
    "volume_24h_usd": 15210.09846,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 50687.931711000005,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket holds the 5.2% threshold at 28%, traders assign roughly one-in-four odds to a significant rates spike before year-end.",
    "30% of all-time volume traded in 24h, suggesting a macro catalyst, CPI print, Fed communication, or Treasury supply news, refreshed interest.",
    "At 28%, the market is pricing this as a tail risk, not a base case, but the volume shows it is not being ignored.",
    "Contract resolves if the 10-year yield closes at or above 5.2% at any point before January 1, 2027."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 15210.09846
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: What is the maximum 10-year Treasury yield before 2027?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-before-2027",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-11T12:33:13+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-10-year-treasury-yield-hit-5-2-vol-15210/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-10-year-treasury-yield-hit-5-2-vol-15210.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}