{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261010VS03",
  "record_slug": "will-the-democratic-party-win-the-attorn-vol-18473",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-10T14:12:44+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "NY AG Democratic hold trades near certainty at 91%",
  "telemetry": "91% · $18K 24h",
  "headline": "NY AG (D): 91% on $18K Kalshi surge",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-2WVDLYDTS5",
  "target_event_slug": "kxattygenny-26",
  "event_question": "Will the New York Attorney General race be decided by January 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXATTYGENNY-26-D",
    "question_raw": "Will the Democratic party win the Attorney General race in New York?",
    "current_price": 0.91,
    "volume_24h_usd": 18473.66,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 39343.08,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-02T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices Democratic retention at 91%, the market treats a Republican win as a remote scenario.",
    "$18K in 24h is 47% of all-time volume, a notable mid-cycle burst for a near-consensus contract.",
    "Fresh volume at the top of the range suggests traders are either confirming the price or hunting for value at the margins.",
    "Resolves on New York Attorney General election result."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 18473.66
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the New York Attorney General race be decided by J",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxattygenny-26",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-10T14:12:44+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-democratic-party-win-the-attorn-vol-18473/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-democratic-party-win-the-attorn-vol-18473.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}