{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261016VS03",
  "record_slug": "will-the-democratic-party-win-the-fl-12-vol-12529",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-16T12:59:44+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "FL-12 Democratic win backed at 5% under fresh volume",
  "telemetry": "5% · $13K 24h",
  "headline": "FL-12 Dem seat: 5% on $12K volume pickup",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-5MPVYCWL84",
  "target_event_slug": "fl-12-house-election-winner",
  "event_question": "Will the Republican or Democratic candidate win the FL-12 House Election in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x144e24d919c77093a495211c3439c98726ec9500283b0fed336c417933021181",
    "question_raw": "Will the Democratic Party win the FL-12 House seat?",
    "current_price": 0.05,
    "volume_24h_usd": 12529.022142,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 47739.200539000005,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices Democrats at 5% in FL-12, marginally higher than FL-18 and WI-07 peers.",
    "24h volume of $12K is 26% of all-time activity, modest but notable this far from Election Day.",
    "Third concurrent deep-red House district spike reinforces a House majority scenario-analysis theme.",
    "Resolves on November 2026 general election result."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 12529.022142
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the Republican or Democratic candidate win the FL-",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/fl-12-house-election-winner",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-16T12:59:44+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-democratic-party-win-the-fl-12-vol-12529/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-democratic-party-win-the-fl-12-vol-12529.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}