{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260925VS04",
  "record_slug": "will-the-democratic-party-win-the-govern-vol-11319",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-25T07:48:30+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Democratic Vermont governor odds slip to 18% on fresh volume",
  "telemetry": "18% · $11K 24h",
  "headline": "Vermont Dem governor: 18% on $11K surge",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-25",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZSNM57MQS0",
  "target_event_slug": "govpartyvt-26",
  "event_question": "Vermont Governor winner?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "GOVPARTYVT-26-D",
    "question_raw": "Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Vermont",
    "current_price": 0.18,
    "volume_24h_usd": 11319.01,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 18897.48,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-05T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices Democrats at 18% to win the Vermont governorship, the mirror contract to the 84% Republican read.",
    "$11K in 24h is 60% of all-time volume for this contract, the most active session on record.",
    "The simultaneous surge on both the Republican and Democratic Vermont governor contracts points to new participants entering both sides.",
    "Resolves on the Vermont gubernatorial election in November 2026."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 11319.01
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Vermont Governor winner?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/govpartyvt-26",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-25T07:48:30+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-democratic-party-win-the-govern-vol-11319/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-democratic-party-win-the-govern-vol-11319.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}