{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261030VS02",
  "record_slug": "will-the-democratic-party-win-the-nc-11-vol-72022",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-30T14:48:27+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Democrats lead NC-11 at 86% through a volume surge",
  "telemetry": "86% · $72K 24h",
  "headline": "Dem NC-11: 86% on $72K Polymarket spike",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-11-04",
    "outcome": "YES",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 1,
    "resolved_at": "2026-11-04"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-DFRWVBVQ98",
  "target_event_slug": "nc-11-house-election-winner",
  "event_question": "Who will win the NC-11 House election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x7fd71c48a98bb515664cadb1f62cf1f27b770fe9cc1216571e183b982a48e42a",
    "question_raw": "Will the Democratic Party win the NC-11 House seat?",
    "current_price": 0.86,
    "volume_24h_usd": 72022.222157,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 111022.32258499999,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-04T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "86% prices the Democratic candidate as a solid frontrunner in North Carolina's 11th district.",
    "$72K in 24h equals 65% of all-time contract volume, most of the market's lifetime traded today.",
    "Mirrors Spike 0: both sides of NC-11 are seeing simultaneous high activity, rare for a House race.",
    "Resolution tied to certified NC-11 election result."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 72022.222157
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Who will win the NC-11 House election?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/nc-11-house-election-winner",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-30T14:48:27+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-democratic-party-win-the-nc-11-vol-72022/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-democratic-party-win-the-nc-11-vol-72022.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}