{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG20261029VS07",
  "record_slug": "will-the-democratic-party-win-the-tx-27-vol-19682",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-29T14:56:22+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "TX-27 Democratic win priced out at 2% on half its all-time volume",
  "telemetry": "2% · $20K 24h",
  "headline": "TX-27 Dem House: 2% on $19K Polymarket surge",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "past_due",
    "as_of": "2026-11-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-SX0N4B8981",
  "target_event_slug": "tx-27-house-election-winner",
  "event_question": "Will a Democratic candidate win the TX-27 House seat in the 2026 general election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x90c0ab6b7fa75ea903689744bc0b24989b646d3ac86cf96cbc96a816a7788137",
    "question_raw": "Will the Democratic Party win the TX-27 House seat?",
    "current_price": 0.021,
    "volume_24h_usd": 19682.596669000002,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 39059.773821999996,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Market gives Democrats a 2% chance of flipping Texas's 27th congressional district.",
    "Polymarket logs $19.7K in 24h, fully 50% of all-time volume arriving in a single session.",
    "Half of all-time volume at 2% odds signals position closing, arbitrage, or event-driven attention.",
    "Resolves on the 2026 TX-27 general election result."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 19682.596669000002
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will a Democratic candidate win the TX-27 House seat in",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/tx-27-house-election-winner",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-29T14:56:22+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-democratic-party-win-the-tx-27-vol-19682/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-democratic-party-win-the-tx-27-vol-19682.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
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