{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261023VS05",
  "record_slug": "will-the-democrats-win-the-arkansas-sena-vol-25802",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-23T07:49:03+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Democrats in Arkansas stay a long shot at 4% odds",
  "telemetry": "4% · $26K 24h",
  "headline": "Arkansas Senate Dem: 4% on $26K, 59% of all-time",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-23",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-GC5J8DX6R3",
  "target_event_slug": "arkansas-senate-election-winner",
  "event_question": "Will a Republican win the Arkansas Senate election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xfd583ce731a731f6500cf5427090f1e708ec102140146200306b56c489ed4364",
    "question_raw": "Will the Democrats win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.042,
    "volume_24h_usd": 25802.174279999996,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 43722.96300799999,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "4% price on polymarket leaves the Arkansas Senate seat firmly in Republican hands by market consensus.",
    "$25,802 in 24h is 59% of all-time volume, more than half the contract's lifetime traded in a single session.",
    "A spike of this size into a 4% contract may reflect a political event or filing development drawing speculative attention.",
    "Resolves on 2026 Arkansas Senate general election."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 25802.174279999996
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will a Republican win the Arkansas Senate election?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/arkansas-senate-election-winner",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-23T07:49:03+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-democrats-win-the-arkansas-sena-vol-25802/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-democrats-win-the-arkansas-sena-vol-25802.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}