{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261014VS07",
  "record_slug": "will-the-democrats-win-the-michigan-gove-vol-33566",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-14T13:17:59+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Michigan governor race leans heavily Democratic as volume returns",
  "telemetry": "95% · $34K 24h",
  "headline": "Dem Michigan governor win: 95% on $33K volume return",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-GTDLXYMZQ7",
  "target_event_slug": "michigan-governor-winner-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Michigan Governor election be won by the Democratic candidate?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x76cface9f6df604ff32447bce58656b7a72b6659324d089c73a13a99f06c8aae",
    "question_raw": "Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.95,
    "volume_24h_usd": 33566.77137000001,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 120158.76706,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices 95%, market is pricing near-certain Democratic victory in the Michigan governor race.",
    "$33K in 24h is 28% of all-time volume on a $120K contract, consistent with ongoing positioning.",
    "Michigan's open governor seat draws continued attention as a flagship 2026 Democratic hold target.",
    "Resolves on 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election result."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 33566.77137000001
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the Michigan Governor election be won by the Democ",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/michigan-governor-winner-2026",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-14T13:17:59+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-democrats-win-the-michigan-gove-vol-33566/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-democrats-win-the-michigan-gove-vol-33566.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}