{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260810VS02",
  "record_slug": "will-the-eurozone-s-2026-annual-inflatio-vol-12663",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-10T09:15:14+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Low-inflation 1.0, 1.2% band draws fresh bets at long-shot odds",
  "telemetry": "2% · $13K 24h",
  "headline": "Eurozone inflation 1.0, 1.2%: 2% on $12K surge",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-BFBHD68BG8",
  "target_event_slug": "eurozone-2026-annual-inflation",
  "event_question": "Will Eurozone annual inflation be below 2% in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xc97f915b033f2176eb9f62dc9d184899e51f4803bc2bb23b20e4fb85e6c41912",
    "question_raw": "Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be between 1.0% and 1.2%?",
    "current_price": 0.02,
    "volume_24h_usd": 12663.26,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 16027.995561,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-19T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices a deep-deflation corridor of 1.0, 1.2% at 2%, market assigns near-negligible probability to a sharp inflation undershoot.",
    "24h volume of $12K equals 79% of all-time handle, echoing a coordinated sweep across Eurozone inflation band contracts.",
    "Volume surge across multiple inflation bands simultaneously points to a single macro catalyst, likely a new flash CPI or ECB communication.",
    "Resolves on the official 2026 annual Eurozone inflation figure; band is narrow and priced near zero."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 12663.26
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will Eurozone annual inflation be below 2% in 2026?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/eurozone-2026-annual-inflation",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-10T09:15:14+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-eurozone-s-2026-annual-inflatio-vol-12663/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-eurozone-s-2026-annual-inflatio-vol-12663.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}