{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260630VS02",
  "record_slug": "will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-vol-1361654",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-30T10:55:12+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Heavy flows defend the near-zero odds on a 50 bps July cut",
  "telemetry": "1% · $1.4M 24h",
  "headline": "Fed 50 bps July cut: 1% on $1.36M one-day surge",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-CJQJ8SK6S4",
  "target_event_slug": "fed-decision-in-july-181",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in July?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x3d675f1c88099a57c12abca632cf926be1bf430125168321de06234e9930fe1a",
    "question_raw": "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.007,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1361654.083371,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 4862241.925549009,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-07-29T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket at 1%, market near-unanimously rules out a jumbo July cut.",
    "24h volume $1.36M is the largest single-day flow, 28% of a deep $4.9M all-time pool.",
    "FOMC July meeting approaching; macro desks appear to be hedging or closing tail positions.",
    "A 1% handle with this volume density signals the rate path is considered highly constrained."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 1361654.083371
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in July?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/fed-decision-in-july-181",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-30T10:55:12+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-vol-1361654/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-vol-1361654.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}