{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG20261028VS01",
  "record_slug": "will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-vol-5679364",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-28T14:50:28+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Odds on a 50 bps Fed hike after October meeting: zero",
  "telemetry": "0% · $5.7M 24h",
  "headline": "Fed 50 bps Oct hike: 0% on $5.7M surge",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-28",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-YC6V96JMH7",
  "target_event_slug": "fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in October?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xde5d75ab7702875623ba509bc923241e1211da74a113521b3b70ddac930d7316",
    "question_raw": "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.004,
    "volume_24h_usd": 5679364.976814001,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 16919411.993129,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-10-28T23:59:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices a 50+ bps October Fed hike at 0%, a decisive policy-off signal.",
    "34% of all-time volume, $5.7M, traded in 24 hours, making this one of the day's largest policy flow events.",
    "Fresh capital is piling in to confirm what forward markets already show: a supersized hike is off the table.",
    "Resolves on the Fed's official rate decision following the October 2026 meeting."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 5679364.976814001
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in October?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-28T14:50:28+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
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    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-vol-5679364.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
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