{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260915VS01",
  "record_slug": "will-the-federal-reserve-hike-rates-by-0-vol-38455",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-15T13:06:46+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Fed October hold stays the consensus bet at 62%",
  "telemetry": "62% · $38K 24h",
  "headline": "Fed Oct hold: 62% on $38K Kalshi surge",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-16",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FPF77GZ320",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfeddecision-26oct",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in October 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-26OCT-H0",
    "question_raw": "Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.62,
    "volume_24h_usd": 38455.36,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 98383.11,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2026-10-28T18:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices a 62% chance the Fed holds rates unchanged at 0bps in October 2026, a bare majority conviction.",
    "39% of all-time volume landed in 24 hours, making this the market's single heaviest session on record.",
    "A September macro print, CPI, payrolls, or Fed speaker, likely catalyzed fresh positioning ahead of the October decision.",
    "Resolution is the October 2026 FOMC meeting outcome."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 38455.36
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in October 202",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfeddecision-26oct",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-15T13:06:46+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-federal-reserve-hike-rates-by-0-vol-38455/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-federal-reserve-hike-rates-by-0-vol-38455.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}