{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261029VS04",
  "record_slug": "will-the-federal-reserve-hike-rates-by-0-vol-47893",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-29T14:56:22+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "A Fed pause in December stays a long shot at 22%",
  "telemetry": "22% · $48K 24h",
  "headline": "Fed Dec hold: 22% on $47K Kalshi volume",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FKPVVZFMR8",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfeddecision-26dec",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in December 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-26DEC-H0",
    "question_raw": "Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.22,
    "volume_24h_usd": 47893.65,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 157947.42,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-09T19:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Market places only 22% odds on the Fed leaving rates unchanged in December 2026.",
    "Kalshi sees $47.9K in 24h, 30% of all-time volume, moving in tandem with the hike contract.",
    "Flow here is the mirror of Spike 1, traders actively arbitraging the hike vs. hold split.",
    "Resolves on the FOMC December 2026 decision."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 47893.65
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in December 20",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfeddecision-26dec",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-29T14:56:22+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-federal-reserve-hike-rates-by-0-vol-47893/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-federal-reserve-hike-rates-by-0-vol-47893.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}