{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG20260627VS06",
  "record_slug": "will-the-h200-compute-per-hour-price-be-vol-10818",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-27T10:03:08+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "H200 compute pricing above $4.99 by June 30 defended near consensus",
  "telemetry": "90% · $11K 24h",
  "headline": "H200 compute >$4.99/hr by Jun 30: 90% on $11K",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-XQHHCRQHC2",
  "target_event_slug": "kxh200q-26jun30",
  "event_question": "Will the price of NVIDIA H200 compute decrease by June 30, 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXH200Q-26JUN30-4.990",
    "question_raw": "Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $4.99 by Jun 30?",
    "current_price": 0.9,
    "volume_24h_usd": 10818.02,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 37332.52,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:59Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi at 90%, market prices sustained GPU compute premium as near-certain through end of June.",
    "$11K in 24h is 29% of all-time volume; institutional attention intensifying at contract expiry.",
    "H200 spot rates have remained elevated on persistent AI inference demand; 90% reflects supply constraint conviction.",
    "Resolves June 30, residual 10% discount may reflect thin liquidity risk or last-hour rate compression."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 10818.02
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the price of NVIDIA H200 compute decrease by June ",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxh200q-26jun30",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-27T10:03:08+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-h200-compute-per-hour-price-be-vol-10818/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-h200-compute-per-hour-price-be-vol-10818.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
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