{
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  "record_slug": "will-the-margin-of-victory-for-david-cro-vol-76481",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-12T09:08:32+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Crowley margin contract trades near certainty after primary",
  "telemetry": "99% · $76K 24h",
  "headline": "Crowley WI margin target: 99% on $76K surge",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": "YES",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 1,
    "resolved_at": "2026-08-26"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-KZPXP2LDK6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxprimarymov-govwinomd26",
  "event_question": "Will the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary margin of victory be at least 5 percentage points?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYMOV-GOVWINOMD26-DCRO-P1",
    "question_raw": "Will the margin of victory for David Crowley in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 0% and 3%?",
    "current_price": 0.99,
    "volume_24h_usd": 76481.34,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 91993.6,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2027-08-11T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices Crowley hitting his victory-margin threshold at 99%, effectively a resolved line.",
    "$76K in 24h is 83% of all-time volume, consistent with a settlement-driven flush.",
    "Companion to the nomination contract; both moving to 99-100% in the same session confirms primary outcome.",
    "Resolves on the certified margin of victory in the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 76481.34
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary margin o",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxprimarymov-govwinomd26",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-12T09:08:32+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-david-cro-vol-76481/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-david-cro-vol-76481.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
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  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
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