{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG20261026VS07",
  "record_slug": "will-the-margin-of-victory-for-republica-vol-14145",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-26T14:48:56+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "South Dakota Senate GOP margin sits at 50-50 on fresh Kalshi flow",
  "telemetry": "52% · $14K 24h",
  "headline": "GOP SD Senate margin: 52% on $14K Kalshi surge",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-26",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-20CYP3Z7L1",
  "target_event_slug": "kxmidtermmov-scsenr",
  "event_question": "Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Carolina be at least 5 percentage points?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-SCSENR-P5",
    "question_raw": "Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Carolina be at least 5 percentage points?",
    "current_price": 0.52,
    "volume_24h_usd": 14145.72,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 46403.92,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "At 52%, traders see the Republican margin question in South Dakota as a near coin-flip.",
    "30% of all-time volume arrived in 24 hours, lifting activity on a previously thin contract.",
    "South Dakota is safely Republican but margin-of-victory contracts hinge on turnout specifics.",
    "Resolves on the certified margin from the 2026 South Dakota U.S. Senate election."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 14145.72
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. ",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxmidtermmov-scsenr",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-26T14:48:56+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-republica-vol-14145/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-republica-vol-14145.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
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