{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260627BD00",
  "record_slug": "will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-3-vs-bench",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-27T10:04:04+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Traders write off US CPI staying above 3.8%",
  "telemetry": "23% · CPI inflation, year-over-year (FRED) 4.2%",
  "headline": "CPI above 3.8%: 23%; FRED year-over-year at 4.2%",
  "category_tag": "VS_BENCHMARK_DRIFT",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "benchmark_drift",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FC6YNQPJV4",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcpiyoy-26jun",
  "event_question": "Will the year-over-year Consumer Price Index inflation rate in June 2026 be below 3%?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T3.8",
    "question_raw": "Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in June 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.23,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 26848.19,
    "resolves_at": "2026-07-14T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices only 23% chance CPI ends above 3.8% for the year ending June 2026.",
    "FRED CPI year-over-year currently sits at 4.2%, already above the 3.8% threshold.",
    "Market implies near-certain drop below 3.8% despite the live print clearing that bar.",
    "Resolves against the official June 2026 CPI year-over-year release."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "benchmark_divergence",
      "provenance": "PM price direct from kalshi API; benchmark CPI inflation, year-over-year (FRED) = 4.2%",
      "field_provenance": {
        "pm_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "benchmark_value": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "CPI inflation, year-over-year (FRED)",
          "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCNS",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-27T10:04:04+00:00"
        }
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "CPI inflation, year-over-year (FRED): 4.2%",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCNS",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-27T10:04:04+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "benchmark_api",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-3-vs-bench/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-3-vs-bench.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}